Showing posts with label risk aversion. Show all posts
Showing posts with label risk aversion. Show all posts

Wednesday, 4 May 2011

Election Day!

Here in Scotland it's a big day tomorrow. We don't just have a referendum to respond to, but elections for the Scottish Parliament.

It's a bit odd that the referendum on AV is coupled with an electoral process for electing the Scottish Parliament which is much more "progressive" (a word that Mr Cartside used and which of course contains a value judgement).

Coming from a country where proportional representation is supported by everyone as a fairer system, I am biased towards proportional representation. Personally, I think AV is half baked, but a tad better than FPtP, so I'll vote yes.

However, I also see FPtP as a very British institution. The UK is maybe the oldest democracy in the Western World, and has a great tradition of governance. FPtP is part of this and I can understand that it's cherished and rightly so. It is maybe part of the British identity, national pride even. This is a country where democratic principles can live alongside a strong monarchy. I'm no monarchist, in fact, I absolutely loathe the principle, but I also admire Britain for the ability to pull it off and get the whole world to love and adore the newly wed couple. And of course, Britain does not have the same history as Germany; which is why the country as such is able to trust an electoral system and governmental design which could be abused (but never has been).

So I'm easy in relation to the referendum. To me, AV is a slightly fairer version of FPtP. It is no real departure, just a variation. The Scottish Parliament election, to me, are more of a compromise, by marrying FPtP and PR.

Some years ago, I taught undergraduates all about the German political system, and about the Scottish electoral system too - it was the time between Referendum for a Scottish Parliament its first election and the first term. Exciting times. However, none of the undergraduates knew that there was an element of PR in the Scottish Parliament elections.

Therein lies the problem. If the electorate doesn't know how to play the PR system, it's potential is wasted. I hope that tomorrow, people know that they have two votes, and two opportunities to create a parliament for Scotland. As for my constituency, Labour and SNP are the two constituency candidates that are head to head. So with my first vote, I'll be voting for the party I wish to see leading the country. With my second vote, however, I will take the opportunity to support a smaller party in the hope that they will get enough votes to maybe even form a coalition with the winner of the elections, thus making a real difference to Scottish politics.

Truth be told, I'm more excited about the Scottish elections than the referendum. Which actually, isn't that surprising at all. As ever, we'll be making a family event out of it, with all four of us walking to the polling station, and no doubt meeting our canvassing neighbour there. 

Thursday, 27 January 2011

Risk aversion or ban the trampoline

This week, the nursery's parents group was hijacked by the NHS.
When I say parents group, this may be a tad misleading - previously attended by me as the only parent, it has now doubled it's membership yet I still struggle to call a twosome a "group", especially considering that I'm atypical in being on maternity leave and German, and the other mum has just moved here from London and her accent indicated that she may not be British either.

In the previous meeting, because it was just me, there was no setting up of purpose of this group, so I kind of expected this now, just to know if this is actually something useful for me and worthwhile going to. It may help with getting more parents involved too if they know what the group is for.

Instead, this is how the meeting went: Two ladies from the NHS were introduced who then went on to tell us that they had become aware of the dangers of trampolines and they were designing a campaign to raise awareness of this danger and if we could help them with ideas how to best promote safe usage of trampolines. We did this and that was the end of the meeting

Bewildered? Well, I was. For three reasons:
a) this is not what I came for and I felt I wasted a good hour to do someone else's job (it's not rocket science to figure out how to raise awareness of specific risks amongst parents) and I also felt the NHS was wasting staff time on something that really didn't need parental engagement.
b) I felt cheated because there wasn't even a pro forma question if us parents wanted to discuss anything - so the NHS got their tick of the box out of it, the nursery too, but the parents didn't.
c) I pondered about the ridiculous risk aversion of our society.

I don't really want to go into a) and b) because it's too blooming obvious what I'm on about and I will raise this with the nursery.
So risk averse society. Apparently, over the summer months, 100 children were admitted to hospital due to accidents involving a trampoline. None of these accidents were more serious than broken bones. The accidents were described as "avoidable". Apparently, there are people propagating the ban of trampolines. Now, I do understand this point of view - trampolines do carry the risk of accidental injury, on occasions this may even be severe.
However, so does playing football, climbing a tree, swimming, cycling, horse riding. In fact, any physical activity carries the risk of accidental injury by the very nature of it. Does this mean a ban would be a good idea?

Or should we not accept that life is risky and usually ends in death, assess risks in a sensible manner and manage the risks instead of avoiding them altogether?
I'd rather have a child with a broken bone than one who ends up obese, with type 2 diabetes and dies of a heart attack at 60. It's also about the actual frequency of accidents - 100 doesn't sound a lot to me considering the population of Greater Glasgow, how does it compare in relation to hours spent on it with other higher risk activities?

And as to the suggested guidelines for using a trampoline safely - I don't think they are realistic. Asking for constant parental supervision is just not going to happen, or to only let one child on at a time just defeats the fun of bouncing on a trampoline. You could just as well not have one.

So, in my view, either ban trampolines or accept there will be accidents which may be much outweighed by the health benefits of trampolines.

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